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Chosing final protocols

The options are below

The table presents options as columns compared to the humanitarian crises and the lowest rainfall years.

Two approaches are presented:

  • One approach is to allow any month to trigger and reduce the frequency for all months until the per year frequency is about 30%
  • The other approach is to require at least three months to trigger in the 5 months of forecasts.

Keep in mind:

  • Each combinded protocol is at approximately a 30% annual level.
  • The different protocols may trigger in different years, leading to different accuracy
  • The different protocols may trigger earlier or later in the year, giving different amounts of time to prepare

Please look carefully at the table, discuss, and then put your thoughts into the form below