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Finalizing Anticipatory Action Triggers: Key Decisions

The number of years that can trigger is limited by budgets - Many funders can only fund 3 out of 10 years

The earlier stages of design result in many different triggers

  • Each month could trigger in any year
  • For example
    • if April could trigger at 30% of the time
    • and if May could also trigger at 30% of the time
    • More than 30% of the years could trigger

  • If forecasts were completely random,

    • for 6 months,
    • at each month set at 30%,
    • we would expect more than 80% of the years to trigger
    • We expect fewer because forecasts are not completely random

  • Different strategies to reduce frequency have different accuracy levels

    • Some strategies may increase accuracy
    • Some strategies may trigger earlier in the year, giving more advance warning of disaster

Therefore, the final, perhaps most important design choices are to choose a rule to combine the different pieces in order to

  • Reduce the frequency to meet funding limits
  • Increase the accuracy of the forecast protocol

In this session we will provide the most relevant options to you and ask you what finalized solution you feel is best.