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AA Hat Answers

  • Rule 1 red markers: 1

  • Rule 1 blue markers: 4

  • Rule 2 red markers: 2

  • Rule 2 blue markers: 3

  • Number of actual draws depends on what happens in the simulation

  • Red drawn on average: 1

  • Is the number equal--depends on what happened in the simulation

  • Should it be exactly the same: Not necessarily (but it is possible)

  • What does this mean: We are only approximating frequency and probabilities by looking at a short number of draws, which can lead to errors

  • What can we do: If we only have a short number of years, we can work to put bounds on the levels of errors that exist, and try to design programs that are robust to these errors.

  • Do we need to be careful: YES! Probability theory says there is about a 1/3 chance of not seeing red with 5 draws, and about a 1/5 chance that it will be drawn 5 times, so depending on only 5 years to decide what the 1 out of 5 event is is only a rough approximation!