Strategy Model

Climate Adaptation Strategy Sustainable Benefit Analysis (SBA) - Agroforestry

Evaluation of the value and long-term sustainability of adaptation strategies such as agroforestry in the context of climate change and support through Anticipatory Action. This tool compares the benefits generated for households under different climate scenarios and levels of external support, assuming that the initial investment required to implement the adaptation strategy has already been made.

DOES CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION THROUGH AGROFORESTRY GENERATE A POSITIVE NET BENEFIT?

YES

Benefit Index with Adaptation and AA: ¤89.6 | Benefit Index without Adaptation or AA: ¤78.0

IS THE ADAPTATION ACTION BENEFICIAL TO THE COMMUNITY?
YES
¤104.6
RED CROSS FINANCIAL SUPPORT
¤15.0
REQUIRED

IS AGROFORESTRY A SUSTAINABLE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGY?

YES

Bad-Year Benefit with Adaptation and AA: ¤26.0

Context

This tool helps assess the profitability and long-term sustainability of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction measures, such as agroforestry, whether or not they are combined with financial support through Anticipatory Action (AA). Using a representative household profile, it estimates expected income and benefits during both normal and adverse (bad) years, taking into account investments made, income generated by the adaptation strategy, the frequency of climate shocks, and external support mechanisms. The tool also examines how costs and benefits are distributed among households, communities, and funding agencies, helping determine whether the strategy represents a sustainable and advantageous option for all stakeholders involved. Note: The initial investment costs required to implement the selected adaptation strategy are not included in this analysis and should be considered separately, as they are assumed to be fully covered by the Red Cross. Through its Scenario Explorer function, users can test different assumptions related to investments, climate conditions, and support mechanisms in order to analyze their influence on household income and resilience over time. The tool combines the selected parameters to calculate an Average Benefit Index, representing the expected average gain while accounting for the probability of a bad year occurring. It also calculates separate benefit indices for normal-to-good years and bad years, as well as an index for a bad year in which the Early Action Protocol (EAP) fails to trigger successfully (AA Failure Index). To assess the potential impact of climate change, begin by reviewing results under current conditions, then gradually increase the probability of bad years occurring. This approach helps visualize how rising climate risk may affect household income and the overall profitability of the adaptation strategy. The “Simulate Strategy" feature can also be used during community discussions to explore different scenarios in real time with participants, encourage dialogue around climate risks and adaptation options, and support informed and participatory decision-making.

Scenario Explorer

Use these buttons to quickly explore how different conditions affect the results. Each scenario changes only one variable at a time. For more detailed analysis, you can adjust each parameter individually using the sliders in the PARAMETERS section below.
Baseline Scenario
Reset all parameters to default values
Increased Climate Risk
Increases the probability of a bad year by 0.10 (10 percentage points)
Enhanced Adaptation through AA
Increases the level of Anticipatory Action support during bad years by 0.10 (10 percentage points).

PARAMETERS

Move the sliders below to adjust the parameters. Values can be expressed either as monetary amounts (shown in blue to the right of each parameter slider) or as a multiplier or percentage of the reference income from a normal year (shown in gray to the right of each parameter slider).
Agricultural Income
Set the baseline agricultural income for a normal year and a bad year.
BASELINE AGRICULTURAL INCOME IN A NORMAL YEAR
Enter the typical agricultural income a household earns during a normal to very good year. This parameter serves as the starting point for the model, and all other values are calculated relative to it. If you do not have a specific income figure, you can set this value to 100, representing the maximum income a household can earn in a favorable year. You can then use the other sliders to express different values as a percentage of this reference income.
BASELINE AGRICULTURAL INCOME IN A NORMAL YEAR
¤
AGRICULTURAL INCOME DURING A BAD YEAR
This parameter represents the household’s agricultural income during a bad year, expressed as a fraction of the income earned in a normal to favorable year. A value of 0 corresponds to a complete crop failure. Adjust this parameter to reflect the share of income the household is able to retain when a bad year occurs.
AGRICULTURAL INCOME DURING A BAD YEAR
0.00 ¤0.0
Climate Change Adaptation Action: Agroforestry Activities
Set the cost of converting land to agroforestry, as well as the additional benefits generated by agroforestry during normal years and bad years. The adaptation investment represents the initial investment required to establish the agroforestry system. The additional benefits correspond to the extra income or advantages that agroforestry provides to the household during both favorable years and adverse years. Adjust these parameters to reflect the expected effects of agroforestry on household livelihoods under different climate conditions.
PROPORTION OF LAND CONVERTED TO AGROFORESTRY
A portion of the household’s land is converted to agroforestry. This represents the household’s main contribution to the adaptation investment. The greater the area dedicated to agroforestry, the more the household relies on income from trees and forest products in addition to its crops. Adjust this parameter to reflect the proportion of land that the household has allocated to agroforestry.
PROPORTION OF LAND CONVERTED TO AGROFORESTRY
0.13 ¤13.0
AGROFORESTRY BENEFIT (FAVORABLE YEAR)
During a favorable year, the agroforestry system generates additional income on top of the household’s agricultural earnings. This value is expressed as a multiplier of the baseline agricultural income. Adjust this parameter to reflect the benefits that the household typically receives from agroforestry during a favorable year.
AGROFORESTRY BENEFIT (FAVORABLE YEAR)
1.40 ¤140.0
AGROFORESTRY BENEFIT (BAD YEAR)
During a bad year, the agroforestry system continues to generate income. This amount is added to the income that the household earns from agriculture during a bad year. Adjust this parameter to reflect the income that agroforestry provides to the household when a climate shock or unfavorable season occurs.
AGROFORESTRY BENEFIT (BAD YEAR)
0.10 ¤10.0
Income from other sources
Set the income received from other sources. This external income represents the household’s stable earnings from activities other than agriculture and agroforestry, such as salaried employment, small businesses, remittances, or other regular income-generating activities. These income sources help strengthen household resilience to climate-related shocks. Red Cross contribution refers to any additional medium- or long-term support provided by the organization. Adjust this parameter to reflect the share of complementary income that is financed through Red Cross programs or other external support mechanisms.
Other Income
Some households have additional sources of income beyond agriculture and agroforestry. Adjust this parameter to reflect the total value of these complementary income sources, such as salaried employment, small businesses, livestock production, or remittances received. If you do not have a specific income amount, you may express this parameter as a percentage of the household’s agricultural income during a favorable year.
Other Income
0.24 ¤24.0
Red Cross Share of other income
If some or all of the additional income generated in the medium or long term comes from the Red Cross rather than from the household itself, indicate the corresponding percentage here. Adjust this parameter to reflect the share of complementary income financed by the Red Cross. Do not include the initial investment costs of the adaptation strategy, as these are treated separately and are assumed to have already been incurred.
Red Cross Share of other income
0.25 ¤6.0
Bad-Year probability in an evolving risk environment
Set the probability of a bad year for the climate risk scenario.
Bad-Year Probability
This parameter represents the expected frequency of bad years. As environmental and climate conditions worsen, the likelihood of a bad year occurring is expected to increase. Adjust this slider to reflect the frequency of bad years in your context, then increase it to explore how a more adverse environment may affect household outcomes, including income, resilience, and the benefits generated by the adaptation strategy.
Bad-Year Probability
0.40 40%
Anticipatory Action support during bad years
Set the amount of financial support provided during a bad year, the Early Action Protocol (EAP) trigger failure rate, and how the costs of anticipatory actions are shared. The support amount represents the value of any assistance received by the household when the EAP is successfully activated, including anticipatory cash transfers, agricultural inputs, seeds, equipment, or other complementary resources. The failure rate represents the probability that this support is not triggered as planned or not delivered in time to the community during a bad year. The cost-sharing arrangement specifies what proportion of the support is financed by the Red Cross and what proportion is borne by the household or community. Adjust these parameters to reflect the design, level of support, and reliability of the Anticipatory Action mechanism in your context.
ADDITIONAL AA SUPPORT DURING A BAD YEAR
This represents the amount of direct Anticipatory Action (AA) support received by the household when a bad year reaches the trigger threshold for activation of the Early Action Protocol (EAP). The support may take the form of cash transfers, agricultural inputs, seeds, equipment, or other anticipatory assistance provided before or during the shock. Adjust this parameter to indicate the value of the support expected under the EAP when it is successfully activated.
ADDITIONAL AA SUPPORT DURING A BAD YEAR
0.20 ¤20.0
AA TRIGGER FAILURE RATE
This parameter represents the probability that the Early Action Protocol (EAP) is not activated during a bad year, even when trigger conditions are met. It therefore indicates how often this situation occurs. Adjust this parameter to reflect the reliability of the EAP triggering mechanism and the likelihood that anticipatory actions will be implemented as planned when a bad year occurs
AA TRIGGER FAILURE RATE
0.30 30%
AA SUPPORT OVERHEADS
These are the administrative costs associated with implementing the cash transfers or other forms of support provided through the Early Action Protocol (EAP). These costs are added on top of the value of the support received by the household. Adjust this parameter to reflect the level of management, coordination, monitoring, logistics, and other implementation costs required to deliver the anticipatory support.
AA SUPPORT OVERHEADS
0.13 13%
RED CROSS SHARE OF AA SUPPORT COSTS
The costs of implementing the support provided through the Early Action Protocol (EAP) may be shared between the community and the Red Cross, or another funding partner. Adjust this parameter to indicate the proportion of these costs covered by the Red Cross. If all implementation costs are covered by the community, for example through a monthly contribution scheme, enter a value of 0. If all costs are financed by the Red Cross through external funding or its own resources, enter a value of 1. Any value between 0 and 1 represents a cost-sharing arrangement between the community and the Red Cross. The Red Cross contribution may take the form of direct financial support, inputs, equipment, or other complementary resources.
RED CROSS SHARE OF AA SUPPORT COSTS
1.00 ¤9.0
TOTAL COST OF AA SUPPORT TO THE RED CROSS
¤9.0
Calculated total AA support costs based on monetary value of the support provided, bad-year probability, and overhead.

SCENARIO SUMMARY TABLE

Scenario Average Benefit Index Benefit Index - Normal Year Benefit Index - Bad Year