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Forecast Error Answers

  • Could you use the forecast to take action months before the drought starts? Answer: Yes

  • Would that give you more time to prepare? Answer: Yes

  • Could that reduce the negative impacts of drought on people? Answer: Yes

  • What might be the problem with using the forecast? Answer: It might be wrong

  • Which year is the worst humanitarian event in the table? Answer: 2017

  • Did the April forecast trigger in that year? Answer: Yes, this is called worthy action

  • What is the second worst humanitarian event in the table? Answer: 2019

  • Did the April forecast trigger in that year? Answer: No, this is called fail to act.

  • What is the 3rd worst humanitarian year? Answer: 2015

  • Does this year count as a year you would have needed to act using rule 2? Answer: No

  • Does the forecast trigger for that year? Answer: Yes, this is called fail to act.

  • What are your thoughts about if you would accidentally act in a year that was bad, but not so bad that action was required by official mandate? Answer: You know best

  • Could increasing frequency prevent failure to act? Answer: Yes

  • Could increasing frequency cause more actions in vain? Answer: Yes

  • Does the number of humanitarian crises impact the action frequency? Answer: Yes

  • Does the action cost and budget impact the action frequency? Answer: Yes

  • Does the forecast accuracy impact the action frequency? Answer: Yes

  • Do humanitarian actors, funding managers, and forecast scientists all need to work together to determine the best forecast triggers? Answer: Yes

  • Can any of those experts correctly determine triggers without consulting the others? Answer: No