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Forecast Answers

  • Which year has the highest probability of drought? Answer: 2015

  • Which year has the second highest probability of drought? Answer: 2017

  • If you had a mandate to act 40% of the time, which two years would the forecast say to act? Answer: 2025, 2017

  • Are those years shaded yellow to make our next discussion points more convenient? Answer: yes

  • If we were to pick a forecast level that is strong enough to meet the 40% criteria, for which 2 years are at or above that level and the rest of the years are below that level, how high would it need to be? Answer: 28.9, or the smallest of the two years that qualify.

  • That forecast level is called the trigger threshold for April. If we set a policy that action is triggered if the forecast is at or above that threshold, what percentage of the time do we trigger action? Answer: 40%

  • Does the forecast always correctly predict what will actually happen? Answer: No, of course not. It is science, not magic!